When Donald Trump recently contracted COVID-19, Warren Harding was briefly in the news as one of the four US Presidents who died of natural causes while in office.  Despite a landslide victory when elected and his huge popularity at the time, he was largely forgotten in the mainstream consciousness until he featured in Chapter 3 of Malcolm Gladwell’s book, ‘Blink’.

Gladwell uses The Warren Harding Error as a cautionary tale on how snap judgements can go horribly wrong, explaining why picking the right candidate for a job is so difficult; and why, on more occasions than we may care to admit, the hiring process can fail to deliver…

‘Blink’ is a book about how we ‘know’ something without really knowing why.   It’s about the power of first impressions: arguing that decisions made very quickly can be every bit as good as decisions made cautiously and deliberately.

This might be taken by many interviewers as good news, given that it’s common for less experienced interviewers to make a decision about an applicant in the first few minutes of the interview.  After all, many people pride themselves on using their intuition and gut feel in spotting high-potential candidates.

But Warren Harding serves as an example of the limitations of intuitive judgements.  He was the 29th US President, from 1921 until his death in 1923.  After his death, a number of scandals came to light, as well as an extramarital affair which did little to help his reputation.  His chief asset was apparently that “he was worth looking at’.  He was’ handsome with an impression of physical grace and virility’.  His voice was ‘noticeably resonant, masculine and warm’.  His manner suggested ‘generous good-nature and a sincere kindliness of heart’.  He was not a particularly intelligent man but he ‘looked like a senator’ and radiated dignity and all that was Presidential.  Gladwell points out that ‘many people who looked at Warren Harding saw how extraordinarily handsome and distinguished-looking he was and jumped to the immediate – and unwarranted – conclusion that he was a man of courage and intelligence and integrity’.  Unfortunately, this turned out to be not the case and his is today rated by historians as one of the worst presidents in American history.

Gladwell highlights The Warren Harding error as the dark side of rapid cognition: it is at the root of a good deal of prejudice and discrimination.

The point he  is making is that snap judgements work best when they are made by experts in their field of domain expertise.  But when it comes to interviewing, there is a real danger of being influenced by subconscious biases – both positive and negative – which can result in hiring failure.

This is why Godliman has developed our proprietary Best-Fit Search™ process: to help eliminate bias in candidate identification and selection.  We first identify possible candidates using Quantifiable Criteria agreed with our clients and applied equally across all candidates; and then we apply a three-step Assessment of Fit process to gauge their suitability for the role.  This systematic and exhaustive process roots out bias in candidate identification and selection by subjecting all candidates to the same scrutiny, which is why the longevity and success in role of our hires is significantly above the industry norm.

Last edited 20th December 2020


Press Digest

The Godliman Press Digest summarises key stories from the Asset Management press, detailing job moves, fund launches and company news. It is published each week in .pdf and .html format and distributed by email to over 6500 subscribers within the asset management sector.

To see a sample of the press digest, click here.

The Godliman Press Digest is a weekly e-mail summarising in one place all the week’s stories from the Asset Management press, detailing job moves, internal appointments and company news.

If you would like to receive the Press Digest, please complete the form below.

Press Digest